Monday, February 01, 2010
The Nominees Are and One Makes My Countdown....
I've been off-line for a few days. Jules and I are in Las Vegas and I haven't had a chance to sit down and knock out a new post. Sorry to let you all down over the weekend, I know most of you who can't go 24 hours without a daily dose of ramblings from my blog. I'll post about our trip when I get back to Cincinnati but today I'll make my predictions for the 2010 Academy Award nominations which will be announced tomorrow in Hollywood. I haven't seen all these movies - my predictions are based on the other award shows and word of mouth. I will say one of my projected movies, and I'm pretty confident it will get nominated for Best Picture, earned a spot in my top 100 - you'll read about this movie later in the post. Here are the predictions...
Best Supporting Actress
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Samantha Morton - The Messenger
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
The top 3 are slam dunk nominees with Mo'Nique being the favorite to win the Oscar. Morton and Moore have been nominated in previous years and I think they'll fill out the category - I wouldn't expect either one to win. My spoiler pick is Penelope Cruz from Nine who won this category last year for one of the most boring movies I've ever see; Vicki Christina Barcelona.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Chrstopher Waltz - Inglorous Basterds
This category is the hardest to predict but there is no difficulty projecting the winner; Christopher Waltz will take home the Oscar. I think Tucci and Plummer will pick up their first nominations while Damon and Harrelson pick up the second of their respective careers. My spoiler pick is Alfred Molina from An Education.
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie and Julia
This would appear to be a two-filly race. Does the Academy go with the most nominated performer in Oscar history and give Streep her third, or will Bullock win her first. Based on the other award shows, I'd say the favorite is Bullock. Mirren just won a couple years ago and the two youngsters, Mulligan and Sidibe, will have to be content being nominated. My possible spoiler is Emily Blount for Young Victoria.
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
The pecking order is probably the same, Bridges is the favorite and Clooney is most likely the only one who can beat him. Clooney may have picked up a lot of ground with his recent telethon for Haiti - the academy loves to reward humanitarian efforts even if it had nothing to do with acting. The other guys are along for the ride. I'm not even sure there is a spoiler pick in this category.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
The favorites are Bigelow and Cameron. Reitman and Tarantino would appear to be safe bets for nominations. The fifth spot will come down to Eastwood or Lee Stevens of Precious. I'm going with Academy favorite, Eastwood, but would not be shocked if Stevens gets the final nomination. I do think Kathryn Bigelow will become the first woman to win the Best Director Oscar.
Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
Invictus
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
The Hangover
A Single Man
Up
Up in the Air
This category is wide open. Unlike previous years where there always seems to be a clear cut favorite, I think there are several movies that could win. It most likely will come down to a three-way showdown between Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Inglorious Basterds. I don't think An Education, A Single Man, Invictus, The Hangover, Up or Up in the Air have a serious shot. There are a few potential spoilers; The Strange Man, District 9 and The Last Station could nab one of the final spots. This is the problem with nominating 10 films, the bottom three or four are really interchangeable with another half dozen films. The top 5 are probably Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Precious, Inglorious Basterds and Up in the Air - the rest will not get serious consideration but they could bet a boost at the box office for being nominated. I do believe Up will be honored with the best animated feature oscar and truly deserves one of the ten spots for best picture. I guess we'll see tomorrow morning!
Time for the next 10 films in my countdown starting with...
#60. Tootsie (1982) - Comedy about a man who can't find an acting job so he secretly auditions for a female role on a soap opera, gets the job and becomes a national sensation. Dustin Hoffman is hilarious (and quite homely) as the cross-dressing actor and Jessica Lange won the best supporting actress as the soap co-star who Hoffman's character falls in love with but can't pursue due to his awkward gender situation. Charles Durning and Bill Murray are equally funny in supporting roles.
#59. Almost Famous (2000) - Semi-autobiographical story written and directed by Cameron Crowe about a 16 year old boy who lands a job as a writer for Rolling Stone magazine and his adventures traveling on a bus with a rock band and their groupies. Solid performances including a breakthrough role for Kate Hudson and the soundtrack is perfect. Frances McDormand is also great as the 16 year old's mother. I saw this movie the same day I saw Billy Elliot - I hit the jackpot that night at Blockbuster!
#58. Chariots of Fire (1981) - Story of two runners from Great Britain and their efforts to compete in the 1924 Paris Olympic games. The 1981 winner for Best Picture, this movie focused on runners Eric Liddell and Harold Abrahams who both won Olympic gold after overcoming religious hurdles which almost kept them from competing altogether. This film also featured a tremendous soundtrack written by Vangelis - you may not recall his name but I'm sure you'd remember the music.
#57. Paper Moon (1973) - This movie featured Ryan O'Neal and his daughter, Tatum, as small time con artist trying to make a buck during the Great Depression. Throw in supporting performances by Madeline Kahn, Randy Quaid and John Hillerman and you have one of my favorite movies from the 1970's. O'Neal became the youngest actress ever to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress in her role as Addie Prey - she hasn't come close to equaling this performance since. Cleverly filmed in black and white to match the feel of the 1930's.
#56. Apocalypse Now (1979) - Another film with a Vietnam War focus, Martin Sheen plays an officer whose mission is to eliminate an extremely deranged Marlon Brando from his post. Along the way he encounters the surf-happy Robert Duvall who immortalized the line 'I love the smell of napalm in the morning...'. A very strange but brilliant piece of film making by Francis Ford Copolla.
#55. The Crying Game (1992) - Stephen Rea is great as an Irish soldier (Fergus) who kidnaps a British soldier (Jody) and holds him for ransom in return for the release of prisoners being held by the British. When it becomes apparent that the British are not going to give in to the demands, Fergus realizes he's going to have to kill Jody, played by Forrest Whitaker - the only problem is, they've befriended each other and Fergus is not sure he can kill Jody. Jody tells Fergus that he understands what he has to do and asks him to let his girlfriend, Dil, know what happened to him after he is killed. An accident occurs, Jody is killed and Fergus looks to fulfill his promise of getting in touch with Dil. That's when the movie gets really interesting. Jaye Davidson plays the girlfriend and was deserving of an Oscar for the portrayal. Great twist, great movie.
#54. Chinatown (1974) Jack Nicholson and Faye Dunaway star in another movie with an interesting twist, set in the Chinatown district of San Francisco. Roman Polanski directed this film and Nicholson's private eye role is one of the best of his career.
#53. Rocky (1976) The film about an underdog boxer who gets a chance to fight the heavyweight champion of the world was the surprise hit film of 1976. Sylvester Stallone was little known when this movie debuted but he wracked up several academy award nominations for starring and writing this film and Rocky took home the Best Picture Oscar, as well. I just wish he would have stopped making Rocky movies after this one.
#52. Up (2009) The only film from 2009 to make my list. Granted, there are still films from 2009 that I've yet to see but this heart warmer about a widower who sets out to fulfill his wife's dream of traveling to and exploring Paradise Falls in Argentina is one of the most impressive animated features I've ever seen. It's very rare that a movie emotionally grabs you within the first 10 minutes of the film but Up does it with characters you immediately connect with. I'll be very disappointed if Up does not receive a Best Picture nomination tomorrow.
#51. Braveheart (1995) Mel Gibson's epic about the life of Scottish legend, William Wallace. Beautifully detailed with tremendously staged battle scenes, this is Gibson's crowning achievement.
That concludes #100 - #51, I'll try to post tomorrow evening when I get back home from Vegas.
Best Supporting Actress
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Samantha Morton - The Messenger
Julianne Moore - A Single Man
The top 3 are slam dunk nominees with Mo'Nique being the favorite to win the Oscar. Morton and Moore have been nominated in previous years and I think they'll fill out the category - I wouldn't expect either one to win. My spoiler pick is Penelope Cruz from Nine who won this category last year for one of the most boring movies I've ever see; Vicki Christina Barcelona.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Chrstopher Waltz - Inglorous Basterds
This category is the hardest to predict but there is no difficulty projecting the winner; Christopher Waltz will take home the Oscar. I think Tucci and Plummer will pick up their first nominations while Damon and Harrelson pick up the second of their respective careers. My spoiler pick is Alfred Molina from An Education.
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie and Julia
This would appear to be a two-filly race. Does the Academy go with the most nominated performer in Oscar history and give Streep her third, or will Bullock win her first. Based on the other award shows, I'd say the favorite is Bullock. Mirren just won a couple years ago and the two youngsters, Mulligan and Sidibe, will have to be content being nominated. My possible spoiler is Emily Blount for Young Victoria.
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
The pecking order is probably the same, Bridges is the favorite and Clooney is most likely the only one who can beat him. Clooney may have picked up a lot of ground with his recent telethon for Haiti - the academy loves to reward humanitarian efforts even if it had nothing to do with acting. The other guys are along for the ride. I'm not even sure there is a spoiler pick in this category.
Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
The favorites are Bigelow and Cameron. Reitman and Tarantino would appear to be safe bets for nominations. The fifth spot will come down to Eastwood or Lee Stevens of Precious. I'm going with Academy favorite, Eastwood, but would not be shocked if Stevens gets the final nomination. I do think Kathryn Bigelow will become the first woman to win the Best Director Oscar.
Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
Invictus
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
The Hangover
A Single Man
Up
Up in the Air
This category is wide open. Unlike previous years where there always seems to be a clear cut favorite, I think there are several movies that could win. It most likely will come down to a three-way showdown between Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Inglorious Basterds. I don't think An Education, A Single Man, Invictus, The Hangover, Up or Up in the Air have a serious shot. There are a few potential spoilers; The Strange Man, District 9 and The Last Station could nab one of the final spots. This is the problem with nominating 10 films, the bottom three or four are really interchangeable with another half dozen films. The top 5 are probably Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Precious, Inglorious Basterds and Up in the Air - the rest will not get serious consideration but they could bet a boost at the box office for being nominated. I do believe Up will be honored with the best animated feature oscar and truly deserves one of the ten spots for best picture. I guess we'll see tomorrow morning!
Time for the next 10 films in my countdown starting with...
#60. Tootsie (1982) - Comedy about a man who can't find an acting job so he secretly auditions for a female role on a soap opera, gets the job and becomes a national sensation. Dustin Hoffman is hilarious (and quite homely) as the cross-dressing actor and Jessica Lange won the best supporting actress as the soap co-star who Hoffman's character falls in love with but can't pursue due to his awkward gender situation. Charles Durning and Bill Murray are equally funny in supporting roles.
#59. Almost Famous (2000) - Semi-autobiographical story written and directed by Cameron Crowe about a 16 year old boy who lands a job as a writer for Rolling Stone magazine and his adventures traveling on a bus with a rock band and their groupies. Solid performances including a breakthrough role for Kate Hudson and the soundtrack is perfect. Frances McDormand is also great as the 16 year old's mother. I saw this movie the same day I saw Billy Elliot - I hit the jackpot that night at Blockbuster!
#58. Chariots of Fire (1981) - Story of two runners from Great Britain and their efforts to compete in the 1924 Paris Olympic games. The 1981 winner for Best Picture, this movie focused on runners Eric Liddell and Harold Abrahams who both won Olympic gold after overcoming religious hurdles which almost kept them from competing altogether. This film also featured a tremendous soundtrack written by Vangelis - you may not recall his name but I'm sure you'd remember the music.
#57. Paper Moon (1973) - This movie featured Ryan O'Neal and his daughter, Tatum, as small time con artist trying to make a buck during the Great Depression. Throw in supporting performances by Madeline Kahn, Randy Quaid and John Hillerman and you have one of my favorite movies from the 1970's. O'Neal became the youngest actress ever to win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress in her role as Addie Prey - she hasn't come close to equaling this performance since. Cleverly filmed in black and white to match the feel of the 1930's.
#56. Apocalypse Now (1979) - Another film with a Vietnam War focus, Martin Sheen plays an officer whose mission is to eliminate an extremely deranged Marlon Brando from his post. Along the way he encounters the surf-happy Robert Duvall who immortalized the line 'I love the smell of napalm in the morning...'. A very strange but brilliant piece of film making by Francis Ford Copolla.
#55. The Crying Game (1992) - Stephen Rea is great as an Irish soldier (Fergus) who kidnaps a British soldier (Jody) and holds him for ransom in return for the release of prisoners being held by the British. When it becomes apparent that the British are not going to give in to the demands, Fergus realizes he's going to have to kill Jody, played by Forrest Whitaker - the only problem is, they've befriended each other and Fergus is not sure he can kill Jody. Jody tells Fergus that he understands what he has to do and asks him to let his girlfriend, Dil, know what happened to him after he is killed. An accident occurs, Jody is killed and Fergus looks to fulfill his promise of getting in touch with Dil. That's when the movie gets really interesting. Jaye Davidson plays the girlfriend and was deserving of an Oscar for the portrayal. Great twist, great movie.
#54. Chinatown (1974) Jack Nicholson and Faye Dunaway star in another movie with an interesting twist, set in the Chinatown district of San Francisco. Roman Polanski directed this film and Nicholson's private eye role is one of the best of his career.
#53. Rocky (1976) The film about an underdog boxer who gets a chance to fight the heavyweight champion of the world was the surprise hit film of 1976. Sylvester Stallone was little known when this movie debuted but he wracked up several academy award nominations for starring and writing this film and Rocky took home the Best Picture Oscar, as well. I just wish he would have stopped making Rocky movies after this one.
#52. Up (2009) The only film from 2009 to make my list. Granted, there are still films from 2009 that I've yet to see but this heart warmer about a widower who sets out to fulfill his wife's dream of traveling to and exploring Paradise Falls in Argentina is one of the most impressive animated features I've ever seen. It's very rare that a movie emotionally grabs you within the first 10 minutes of the film but Up does it with characters you immediately connect with. I'll be very disappointed if Up does not receive a Best Picture nomination tomorrow.
#51. Braveheart (1995) Mel Gibson's epic about the life of Scottish legend, William Wallace. Beautifully detailed with tremendously staged battle scenes, this is Gibson's crowning achievement.
That concludes #100 - #51, I'll try to post tomorrow evening when I get back home from Vegas.
# posted by Vince Hopkins @ 1:25 PM 
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I haven't seen a lot of the movies that have actors/actresses likely to be nominated, but of them, best supporting actor is stacked just from the two that I have seen. The Lovely Bones wasn't the greatest movie but Tucci delivered a great performance as the pedophile neighbor, and Christopher waltz should no doubt win as the multi-lingual "jew-hunter." In the movie, he speaks German, English, French, and Italian seemingly flawlessly.
As for your ten I haven't seen a good deal of them and I don't really remember Paper Moon, although I have heard you quote it enough.
60-51:
#60 Avatar (2009) - I was absolutely blown away by this movie. While the story seemed familiar and the acting was shaky at times, I was too busy being focused on the effects and the creative world that was made for this film. I wish I could have one of those reptile birds to fly around on.
#59 Snatch. (2000) - This movie is about a handful of people all with one goal, to obtain a precious diamond. My main reason for liking it is because of Brad Pitt's character, Mickey 'the one-punch machine gun' Oneal. He puts on quite a bare-knuckle boxing display.
#58 American Beauty (1999) - Kevin Spacey delivered one of the single best bits of acting in this Academy Award winner. It would probably be higher if every supporting character didn't annoy me in one way or another.
#57 Ace Ventura: When Nature Call (1995) - Believe it or not, I the original Ace Ventura just not as good as the second. There is something about Ace being in what you would consider to be his habitat that makes it that much funnier. It's great when he drops a slinky down one of the worlds longest staircases and one the last step it stops.
#56 Ben-Hur (1959) In this epically long film Charleton Heston plays a jewish man who was a child hood friend to a young Roman kid who grows up to govern the area in which Ben lives. As their differences expose themselves, Ben finds himself having to survive all kinds of adventures.
#55 Up (2009) Just three spots off. Mr. Fredrickson doesn't want to leave his house that he has lived in for years but after a court case forces him out, he decides to go on an adventure that he and his dead wife never could go on. On the way he has to take a young stowaway Russell, the exotic flightless bird Kevin, and Dug the talking dog.
#54 The Lion King (1994) The lion king is one of the most perfect combinations of music and animations. Naturally Elton John writes the music while a solid cast provides the voices. The meerkat and warthog tandem of Timon and Pumba provide the movie with comedy.
#53 Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981) As a kid I was entranced with the rolling ball scene that I don't even thing I watched the rest of the film. Now it is one of my all-time favorites due to Harrison Ford's badass persona.
#52 Home Alone (1990) Any kid who says they didn't want a robber to come to the house just so they could whoop his ass like Macauley Caulken is lying. Before I could appreciate Marv and Harry I loved this movie solely for the traps.
#51 Kingpin (1996) Woody Harrelson is classic ast he former bowling champion Roy Munson. The movie is so hysterical and it climaxes in the epic bowling show down of Mr. Munson and Big Ern McCraken played by Bill Murray. Both bowlers are balding, and their comb-overs are going everywhere.
As for your ten I haven't seen a good deal of them and I don't really remember Paper Moon, although I have heard you quote it enough.
60-51:
#60 Avatar (2009) - I was absolutely blown away by this movie. While the story seemed familiar and the acting was shaky at times, I was too busy being focused on the effects and the creative world that was made for this film. I wish I could have one of those reptile birds to fly around on.
#59 Snatch. (2000) - This movie is about a handful of people all with one goal, to obtain a precious diamond. My main reason for liking it is because of Brad Pitt's character, Mickey 'the one-punch machine gun' Oneal. He puts on quite a bare-knuckle boxing display.
#58 American Beauty (1999) - Kevin Spacey delivered one of the single best bits of acting in this Academy Award winner. It would probably be higher if every supporting character didn't annoy me in one way or another.
#57 Ace Ventura: When Nature Call (1995) - Believe it or not, I the original Ace Ventura just not as good as the second. There is something about Ace being in what you would consider to be his habitat that makes it that much funnier. It's great when he drops a slinky down one of the worlds longest staircases and one the last step it stops.
#56 Ben-Hur (1959) In this epically long film Charleton Heston plays a jewish man who was a child hood friend to a young Roman kid who grows up to govern the area in which Ben lives. As their differences expose themselves, Ben finds himself having to survive all kinds of adventures.
#55 Up (2009) Just three spots off. Mr. Fredrickson doesn't want to leave his house that he has lived in for years but after a court case forces him out, he decides to go on an adventure that he and his dead wife never could go on. On the way he has to take a young stowaway Russell, the exotic flightless bird Kevin, and Dug the talking dog.
#54 The Lion King (1994) The lion king is one of the most perfect combinations of music and animations. Naturally Elton John writes the music while a solid cast provides the voices. The meerkat and warthog tandem of Timon and Pumba provide the movie with comedy.
#53 Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981) As a kid I was entranced with the rolling ball scene that I don't even thing I watched the rest of the film. Now it is one of my all-time favorites due to Harrison Ford's badass persona.
#52 Home Alone (1990) Any kid who says they didn't want a robber to come to the house just so they could whoop his ass like Macauley Caulken is lying. Before I could appreciate Marv and Harry I loved this movie solely for the traps.
#51 Kingpin (1996) Woody Harrelson is classic ast he former bowling champion Roy Munson. The movie is so hysterical and it climaxes in the epic bowling show down of Mr. Munson and Big Ern McCraken played by Bill Murray. Both bowlers are balding, and their comb-overs are going everywhere.
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